A new poll reveals a striking disconnect among Ontario voters as the Liberal party prepares to choose its next leader. While Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives maintain a slight edge, a significant portion of the population remains largely unaware of those vying to challenge him.
The data suggests a broader challenge for all opposition leaders in the province. Voters are open to alternatives, but many simply don’t know who they are, hindering any potential shift in public sentiment.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles currently holds the highest favourability rating among opposition leaders at 28%, yet a substantial 30% of Ontarians admit they aren’t familiar with her. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner faces a similar hurdle, with 22% favourability and a concerning 38% unfamiliarity rate.
Among the eight individuals considering a run for the Liberal leadership, Toronto City Councillor Josh Matlow leads in both favourability (18%) and name recognition. However, even he remains unknown to a majority – 59% of Ontarians say they lack sufficient information to form an opinion.
Matlow’s support is heavily concentrated in Toronto, where his favourability jumps to 33%, highlighting the need for broader outreach. The challenge for the Liberals is clear: building provincial awareness for their candidates.
Former Liberal Party of Canada President Mike Crawley, despite withdrawing from the race, showed relatively strong results, scoring 7% favourability. This may be partially attributed to confusion with a CBC journalist sharing the same name, demonstrating the power of existing name recognition.
Beaches-East York MP Nate Erskine-Smith garnered 7% favourability, but a staggering 81% of respondents admitted they didn’t know him. The remaining Liberal hopefuls – Rob Cerjanec, Lee Fairclough, Vikram Handa, Dylan Marando, and Eric Lombardi – all registered favourability and familiarity rates of 2% or less.
The poll underscores a critical need for opposition leaders to expand their profiles beyond their immediate political bases. For the Liberals, the leadership race is just beginning, offering an opportunity to introduce new faces to the electorate. The NDP and Greens, however, face a more pressing need to actively increase their leaders’ visibility across the province.
