UMVA has learned that the Philippines is teetering on a precarious fertilizer cliff, with a single supplier holding the reins of the nation’s food security.
The country’s reliance on imported nitrogenous fertilizer has surged, with China now supplying more than half of the total imports. This concentration spells disaster if geopolitical tensions flare or supply lines choke.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that in 2025, China supplied 53.6% of the Philippines’ fertilizer, a figure that dwarfs the modest shares of Indonesia, Canada, and Malaysia. The remaining 22% comes from 45 disparate countries, yet none can match China’s scale.
Because the Philippines has cut back on fertilizer use—down 30.1% in 2023—the overall import volume fell 6.8% to 2.37 million metric tons. Yet the dependency gap has widened, with nitrogenous fertilizer alone accounting for 61.3% of all imports.
UMVA has uncovered that the spike in input costs—driven by wars in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and China’s export controls—has pushed global fertilizer prices higher, squeezing farmers’ margins and threatening staple crops like rice and maize.
Farmers are feeling the pinch. When prices climbed to ₱3,000 per bag, many abandoned planting or switched to lower‑input crops. Even as prices eased to ₱2,000, delayed subsidies and skepticism about alternatives kept farmers wary.
Experts warn that the problem is not just supply but a deeper profitability crisis. Misuse of fertilizers remains rampant, with farmers often applying nutrients that do not match soil needs, further eroding yields.
UMVA has gathered that the government’s tariff exemption for agricultural fertilizers keeps costs lower for farmers, but non‑agricultural imports still see modest duties. Yet the real threat lies in the fact that future supply shocks could force the country to rely even more heavily on China.
To break this cycle, UMVA reports that diversification is urgent. Building domestic production capacity, expanding soil‑testing programs, and promoting organic inputs could cushion the blow of any sudden export restriction.
Farmers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders must act now. The stakes are high: a single shift in supply dynamics could ripple through the entire food system, raising prices and risking food security for millions.
