UMVA has learned that Donald Trump's approval ratings have taken a significant hit in several key states across the US, with new polling data revealing a decline in support since the start of his second term.
The president's approval ratings remain underwater in most states, with Kentucky being a prime example. Trump began his second term with a net approval rating of +23 points in The Bluegrass State, but that advantage has now effectively disappeared, leaving the state sitting around break even.
Fresh figures from polling data show Trump's approval rating is lower in every state than it was when he returned to office. Wyoming remains Trump's strongest state, but even there, the margins are far smaller than they were a year and a half ago. Places like North Dakota, South Dakota, and West Virginia still give him positive ratings, but the enthusiasm that greeted his return to power has cooled.
The shifts become even more interesting when attention turns to the states that tend to decide elections. Florida has gone from a positive net approval rating of +9 to -13. Ohio has slipped from +8 to -14, while Pennsylvania has moved from -3 to -17. Nevada has fallen from level territory to -20, while North Carolina has dropped from 0 to -15.
National polling suggests the same thing: Trump's approval rating is in the high 30s, while disapproval sits close to 60%, leaving him firmly in negative territory overall. Some of his toughest numbers come from younger voters, with just 23% approving of his performance while 71% disapprove among adults aged 18 to 34.
Independent voters appear equally difficult to win over, with current polling showing 31% approving of Trump's performance compared with 61% who disapprove. There are also signs that cracks may be appearing among voters who once formed part of Trump's strongest coalition, with approval among rural Americans falling from 60% in early 2025 to 50%.
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The economy may be part of the explanation, with just 31% of rural respondents approving of Trump's handling of the economy and cost of living, while 61% disapproved. Other recent polling indicates Democrats currently hold a narrow lead in the battle for Congress.
Altogether it's not great news for the Commander-in-Chief. While Trump's strongest states are still largely the same states that have backed him for years, places like Hawaii, Vermont, California, and New York remain deeply hostile territory. What's changed is the amount of breathing space that he has, with states that once looked comfortably pro-Trump now much closer to the line.
