The cellular IoT market is set to experience significant growth by 2035, with forecasters predicting 5.9 billion connections globally. This growth is expected to be driven by a range of technologies, including NB-IoT, 5G Massive IoT, and eRedCap.
According to recent research, the cellular IoT market is no longer following a single upgrade path. Instead, it is expected to be characterized by a mix of technologies, with each technology being chosen based on specific factors such as cost, power consumption, network availability, and application requirements.
The forecast identifies three key technology areas as central to the expansion of cellular IoT connections: 5G RedCap and eRedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and 4G LTE Cat-1bis modules. These technologies will play a crucial role in shaping the next phase of module and connection growth.
eRedCap is expected to be more successful than RedCap, according to the forecast. This is due to factors such as faster rollouts of 5G Standalone networks and lower module prices. eRedCap is also expected to benefit from growing 5G SA network availability, which will provide a more stable and secure connection for IoT devices.
The forecast highlights the importance of regional dynamics in shaping the cellular IoT market. For example, NB-IoT is heavily weighted towards Asia and Oceania, while LTE-M is expanding globally. This regional asymmetry creates challenges for global device vendors, who must choose between different module variants, fallback technologies, or connectivity profiles depending on where their products will be deployed.
Regulation is also playing a significant role in shaping the market. The European Cyber Resilience Act, for example, is driving the adoption of eSIM, eUICC, and resilient SIM architectures, which are more secure and easier to maintain over long periods of time.
The automotive sector is also expected to experience significant growth, with forecasters predicting over 1 billion cellular IoT connections by 2035. This growth is driven by connected vehicle adoption and vehicle-to-everything communications requirements.
The forecast points to a larger ecosystem shift: cellular IoT growth through 2035 will depend on a wider set of optimized radio technologies, not a single dominant standard. This creates more flexibility for the market, but also more complexity for OEMs and connectivity providers that must support products over long lifecycles in uneven regional conditions.
