A chilling assessment from a highly decorated former U.S. general suggests the current operations targeting Iran may fall short of their ultimate goal. Lieutenant General Mark Schwartz, a 33-year veteran of the Green Berets, believes outright regime change is unlikely, despite ongoing military efforts.
Schwartz’s stark warning, delivered to a leading Israeli newspaper, centers on the deeply entrenched nature of Iran’s leadership structure. He argues that eliminating the current Supreme Leader wouldn’t dismantle the system, but merely trigger a succession of replacements – a seemingly endless line of religious figures prepared to step into the role.
The general points to a critical factor often overlooked in such scenarios: depth within the Iranian power structure. Beyond the Supreme Leader, Iran’s intelligence agencies, the Revolutionary Guards, and the military itself possess the resilience to rebuild leadership if decimated, effectively neutralizing the impact of targeted assassinations.
These operations, known as Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, are now entering their fourth week. Yet, Schwartz’s perspective casts a shadow of doubt on the possibility of a complete overhaul of the Iranian government.
Adding to the complexity, intelligence officials are already anticipating Iran’s response should the regime survive. Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, predicts a prolonged and determined effort to rebuild Iran’s military capabilities, including its missile and drone forces.
However, Gabbard also acknowledges a significant shift underway in the region. She believes the current campaign, sparked by the October 7th attack and a preceding 12-day conflict, is fundamentally altering the balance of power, weakening Iran and its network of proxy forces.
A pivotal development has already occurred: the reported death of the former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his replacement by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. This transition, while significant, doesn’t necessarily signal the collapse of the regime, according to Schwartz’s analysis.
Schwartz’s extensive experience – spanning decades of service across the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, and involving collaboration with international organizations like NATO and the UN – lends considerable weight to his cautionary words. His assessment suggests a long and arduous path ahead, even if current operations continue to achieve tactical successes.
The implications are clear: a swift and decisive victory in Iran may be an illusion. The reality, as painted by this seasoned military leader, is one of resilience, succession, and a potentially protracted struggle for influence in the region.
