The Maine Senate race is shaping up to be a highly competitive contest, with Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins holding a small three percentage-point advantage over Democratic candidate Graham Platner. According to a recent statewide poll, Collins receives 50% of the vote, while Platner garners 47% among registered voters. However, among the two-thirds of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Platner leads by 9 points, 53-44%.
Maine voters express concerns about both Senate candidates, with more than half saying Platner lacks the judgment to serve as a U.S. senator, and a similar share believing Collins has been in office too long. Nearly 4 in 10 voters are extremely worried about Platner's judgment, compared to 3 in 10 who express the same concern about Collins' lengthy tenure. Roughly one-third of independents are extremely concerned about both Platner's judgment and Collins' tenure.
The poll also reveals that voter motivation is playing a significant role in the race, with a 15-point enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. More Democrats (76%) than Republicans (61%) describe themselves as highly motivated to cast a ballot this year. This enthusiasm gap is driving Platner's lead among highly motivated voters, with 53% supporting him compared to 44% for Collins.
Collins' edge in the race primarily comes from men, voters without a college degree, gunowner households, and rural voters. She is matching her performance among these groups compared to her most recent re-election. Platner, on the other hand, is preferred among women, voters with a college degree, and suburban voters and moderates. However, he is underperforming compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris' 2024 support among these groups.
The economy is a significant concern for Maine voters, with inflation ranking as the top issue in deciding their Senate vote. More than 4 in 10 voters say they are falling behind financially, while about half are holding steady. Only 1 in 10 voters say they are getting ahead financially. The most important issue to Maine voters is inflation (30%), followed by political divisions within the country (19%), healthcare (17%), and immigration (14%).
In the gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 11 points, 53-42%. Her lead expands to 18 points among those who are extremely motivated to vote in November. Seventeen percent of those favoring Collins in the Senate race cross party lines to support Pingree for governor, while 5% of Platner backers go for Charles, the Republican.
The poll's results are based on a sample of respondents who spoke with live interviewers or completed the survey online. The margin of sampling error is ± 3 percentage points, with higher sampling error for results among subgroups. Weights were applied to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
