Former President Trump revealed a startling assessment of Iran’s leadership: “Nobody knows who to talk to,” yet he claimed the U.S. is engaging with the “right people” eager for a deal. This statement arrives amidst public denials from Tehran regarding any ongoing negotiations, raising a critical question – who truly holds the reins of power within Iran?
The picture emerging from intelligence assessments is increasingly clear: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has risen to become the dominant force in Iranian politics. Recent events, including targeted strikes and growing internal strife, haven’t created chaos, but rather accelerated a pre-existing trend toward security forces controlling the state.
Experts believe Iran is operating less like a unified theocracy and more like a wartime command structure, with overlapping power centers all ultimately reporting to the IRGC. This isn’t simply a shift in personnel; it’s a fundamental alteration of the nation’s power dynamics, transforming it into a “national security rump state,” as one analyst described.
At the heart of this power structure lies the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s central hub for coordinating military and foreign policy. Recently, a former IRGC commander was appointed as its secretary, further solidifying the Corps’ control over critical decision-making processes.
While Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei formally holds the highest office, questions linger about his actual authority, particularly after reported injuries sustained in recent strikes. Some suggest he is currently a symbolic figure, with real power residing with the IRGC leadership.
Amidst this shifting landscape, one name has surfaced as a potential point of contact for the U.S.: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. A veteran of the IRGC and current parliament speaker, he represents a unique blend of military and political influence, and is reportedly being considered for future leadership.
However, analysts caution against focusing solely on individual figures. The driving force in Iranian politics has always been personality, not profession. The IRGC’s influence extends throughout the Supreme National Security Council, with past secretaries also hailing from its ranks.
Alongside Ghalibaf, figures like Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi remain visible on the international stage, but his role is likely limited to communication, not independent policy-making. The true strategic decisions are still being shaped by the IRGC and the broader security establishment.
Beyond these key players, a network of officials – including IRGC chiefs, regional commanders, the Judiciary Chief, and senior clerical figures – collectively steer Iran’s direction. They represent the diverse pillars of the system: military strength, proxy operations, internal control, and religious authority.
Despite internal divisions and competing interests, one objective unites Iran’s leadership: the survival of the regime. Whether pragmatic elites or hardliners are in the ascendancy, the preservation of power remains the paramount concern, shaping every decision and influencing every negotiation.
