Ukraine has been using American intelligence to penetrate Russia's extensive air-defense network, with significant results. The country's ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, credits U.S. intelligence for helping Ukrainian missiles and drones avoid Russian anti-missile defense. This cooperation has allowed Ukraine to strike important Russian energy assets, including oil refineries, far beyond the front line.
The strikes have created serious pressure inside the Russian system, although they have not yet persuaded President Putin to change course. Ambassador Korniychuk believes that the majority of the Russian leadership understands that this is a crucial problem, but Putin personally does not. This is causing a growing distance between him and the rest of the Russian leadership.
Retired Lt. Gen. Richard Newton, a former U.S. Air Force assistant vice chief of staff, agrees that the broader strategic picture is shifting in Ukraine's favor. He notes that Ukrainian drone attacks have recently reached deep inside Russia, up to 1,500 miles away. This pressure is arriving as Western support for Ukraine strengthens.
However, Russia continues to generate billions in energy revenue beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones. Despite this, the European Union has received 97% of the cargoes shipped from Russia's Yamal LNG project between January and May 2026. These shipments totaled 8.37 million metric tons and had an estimated value of roughly $5.7 billion.
The dual reality confronting Kyiv is that Ukraine can damage refineries, disrupt domestic fuel supplies, and force Moscow to divert resources, while Russia continues earning substantial revenue from global energy markets. Ambassador Korniychuk believes that President Zelenskyy has given the military 40 days to substantially change the situation.
While it is unclear whether Putin's system is approaching collapse, experts caution that authoritarian regimes can appear stable until they unravel with extraordinary speed. Ukraine's strikes have not halted Russian military operations or forced Putin to negotiate, but they have reached deep into Russia, strained its fuel system, and undermined the Kremlin's effort to keep the war distant from its population.
