UMVA has learned that a powerful El Niño event is likely to bring a cold and wet winter to the UK, with meteorologists warning of potentially record-breaking rainfall and snowier weather.
This year's El Niño is expected to be particularly strong, with ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rising to unprecedented levels. Meteorologist Sean Batty said that this El Niño is "likely to blow the others out of the water," with the UK potentially experiencing its wettest winter ever.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that involves an increase in ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The severity of an El Niño is determined by the extent to which ocean surface temperatures spike past typical levels within a specific sector of the Pacific.
A super El Niño occurs when temperatures climb more than 1.5°C beyond the norm, while anything crossing the 2°C threshold is deemed an extreme or exceptional occurrence. Researchers are surprised by the computer models' certainty in the strength of the upcoming El Niño.
The super El Niño could spell trouble for the UK next year, with meteorologists predicting potential crop failures in countries including Australia and India, leading to rising prices in exported goods. Batty added that this could cause "big headlines around the world" once it properly kicks in later this year.
According to information obtained by UMVA, the UK can expect "much colder and snowier weather around Easter next year." Batty also noted that Januarys during El Niño years tend to be fairly average overall, while February is more complicated.
March shows a clearer signal, with seven of the eight years being warmer than average, while March 1998 ranks among the 30 warmest Marches on record. The most consistent pattern he found was for the month of April, which was colder than normal.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that experts are warning of the potential impacts of this super El Niño on global weather patterns. Each El Niño event is unique, with its own imprint on our weather, and advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow for better prediction and preparation.
