A wave of Liberal victories swept across two key Toronto ridings Monday night, solidifying the party’s grip on power in the House of Commons. The results in Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale were called early, painting a clear picture of continued Liberal dominance in the Greater Toronto Area.
In Scarborough Southwest, former NDP MPP Doly Begum surged to victory, capturing over 65% of the vote in a riding previously held by Bill Blair, the former Toronto Police chief and national defence minister. The Conservative candidate struggled to gain traction, trailing significantly behind Begum throughout the evening.
University—Rosedale also delivered a decisive win for the Liberals, with political newcomer Danielle Martin securing more than 60% of the vote. She successfully defended the seat formerly held by Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, continuing the Liberal hold on this traditionally strong district.
The stakes were high heading into these byelections. A single win would grant the Liberals a coveted majority in the House of Commons, streamlining the passage of legislation and reducing reliance on tie-breaking votes from the Speaker.
These victories arrive on the heels of a recent influx of MPs switching allegiances. Four Conservatives, along with former NDP MP Lori Idlout, have crossed the floor to join the Liberal ranks in recent months, bolstering their numbers and fueling accusations of strategic maneuvering.
The Liberal party now holds 173 seats in the 343-seat House, a significant milestone achieved through both electoral success and the shifting loyalties of sitting members. This newfound strength allows them to navigate the legislative process with greater ease.
However, the floor-crossings haven’t been without controversy. Accusations of “backroom deals” and attempts to “poach” MPs from opposing parties have surfaced, raising questions about the motivations behind these political shifts. Liberal MP Wayne Long denied any ongoing recruitment efforts.
The byelections were triggered by the departures of two prominent cabinet ministers. Chrystia Freeland stepped down from her role in University—Rosedale to take on an advisory position in Ukraine, focusing on economic development. Bill Blair, meanwhile, accepted the post of Canada’s next High Commissioner to the U.K.
Both ridings had been considered safe Liberal seats, and the results Monday night confirmed that assessment. The party successfully defended its territory, demonstrating its continued appeal to voters in these key areas.
A closely watched contest also unfolded in Terrebonne, Quebec, a riding with a dramatic recent history. The 2025 election result was initially decided by a single vote, only to be overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada due to issues with mail-in ballots.
The battle in Terrebonne saw a tight race between the Liberal and Bloc Quebecois candidates, with the Liberals deploying significant resources – including prominent figures – to secure a win. The outcome remained uncertain as votes continued to be tallied.
Advance polling in Terrebonne showed a roughly 20% voter turnout, indicating a high level of engagement in this fiercely contested riding. The Liberal candidate, Tatiana Auguste, faced a strong challenge from Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne, who previously represented the riding from 2021-2025.
