A troubling trend is unfolding across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area: despite growing efforts to combat climate change, overall carbon emissions are stubbornly refusing to decline at the necessary rate. A recent analysis reveals a one per cent increase in emissions for 2024, a figure that, while slower than previous years, falls drastically short of the 11 per cent annual reductions needed to meet regional climate goals by 2030.
The core of the problem lies within the region’s power supply. Electricity emissions have surged by a startling 28 per cent, far outpacing the two per cent increase in energy demand. This dramatic rise is a direct consequence of Ontario’s escalating reliance on natural gas to fuel the electricity grid – a dependence projected to worsen in the coming decade.
However, the picture isn’t entirely bleak. A glimmer of hope emerges from per-capita emission figures, which have actually decreased by three per cent, even as the GTHA welcomed approximately 300,000 new residents. This suggests that targeted climate initiatives are beginning to yield positive results.
Home energy retrofit programs and the expansion of electric vehicle infrastructure are demonstrably contributing to this progress. Toronto’s recent achievement of deploying 100 electric buses in its public transit fleet serves as a powerful example of tangible change. Each step towards efficiency and clean energy represents not just environmental benefit, but also job creation and economic resilience.
Despite these gains, concerns are mounting over recent policy shifts. Rollbacks in funding and supportive climate policies are casting a shadow over future progress. A critical element of Toronto’s climate strategy is currently facing scrutiny from the provincial government.
New legislation aims to prevent municipalities from enforcing stricter, mandatory green building standards. Over a dozen Ontario cities, inspired by Toronto’s leadership, have been pushing developers to exceed minimum provincial requirements for energy efficiency and emissions reduction. The province’s building code, however, has seen minimal updates to its energy or emissions standards since the current government took office.
While most municipal standards remain voluntary, Toronto and Halton Hills have implemented mandatory requirements. Toronto maintains its authority to enforce its standard, despite the new provincial law. The province argues that inconsistent standards create unnecessary costs and complexity for builders, and is currently seeking feedback on the legislation.
The report strongly recommends that municipalities “maintain and enhance” their green building standards, even in light of the recent legal challenges. Buildings are responsible for just under half of the GTHA’s total emissions, primarily due to gas-powered electricity and heating, and emissions from this sector rose 1.7 per cent between 2023 and 2024.
The situation is further complicated by the state of Ontario’s energy grid, which is currently the most polluted it has been since 2012, before the phase-out of coal power. The grid was only 84 per cent emissions-free last year, a significant drop from the 96 per cent achieved in 2017, directly attributable to increased natural gas usage.
Climate advocates point to a lack of timely investment in renewable energy sources and battery storage as the root cause of this troubling trend. The government maintains its commitment to an almost entirely clean grid by 2050, attributing the current reliance on natural gas to its flexibility and the ongoing refurbishment of nuclear facilities.
Beyond buildings, transportation remains a significant source of emissions, accounting for 37 per cent of the GTHA’s total. The return-to-office movement is actively hindering efforts to reduce transportation emissions, a challenge likely to intensify as the province mandates full-time office work for all public servants next year.
While transit ridership is recovering, it remains approximately 13 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. The number of registered electric vehicles in the GTHA has seen a substantial increase, rising by 34 per cent in 2023 to nearly 100,000. Continued support for EV adoption through policies and incentives is deemed crucial.
The GTHA, encompassing Toronto, Hamilton, and the surrounding regional municipalities, is responsible for a staggering 46 per cent of all emissions in Ontario. The region’s struggle to curb pollution underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive and sustained commitment to climate action.
