A fragile hope has taken root in the aftermath of conflict – a second phase in the effort to forge a lasting peace between Israel and Hamas is now underway. The initial ceasefire, a monumental achievement in itself, is giving way to a far more complex challenge: building a future for Gaza beyond the shadow of war.
At the heart of this new phase lies a critical, unanswered question: who will disarm Hamas? U.S. officials have announced a shift toward demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction, but the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. A key demand is the immediate return of the final deceased Israeli hostage held by Hamas, a condition linked to serious consequences if ignored.
The plan envisions a transitional Palestinian administration, backed by international support, taking the reins of Gaza. This administration, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, is intended to provide stability during a delicate period of rebuilding and reform. However, the success of this endeavor hinges on a fundamental shift in Hamas’s behavior.
France, a key international partner, views Israel’s security as paramount, particularly in the face of regional threats. Yet, French officials also believe that lasting security for Israel is inextricably linked to the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state, one that can coexist peacefully with its neighbors.
The United Nations has cautiously welcomed the new phase, emphasizing the importance of adhering to international law. But analysts agree that the plan’s success depends on confronting the core issue: Hamas’s continued military power. Without addressing this, reconstruction efforts will be futile, and the cycle of violence risks repeating itself.
Experts highlight a stark reality – the only force demonstrably willing to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities is Israel. As long as Hamas remains armed, a full withdrawal of Israeli forces and substantial rebuilding cannot occur. A credible military threat remains essential to compel compliance.
The international community faces a difficult choice. A U.N. Security Council resolution authorizes an international force to disarm Hamas, but no nation has stepped forward to take on that dangerous mission. Alternative proposals, including the use of private military contractors, are being considered, but each carries significant risks.
A critical test lies with regional actors like Turkey and Qatar, who have previously pledged to support Hamas’s disarmament. Their commitment, or lack thereof, will be a key indicator of whether this phase can move beyond diplomatic statements and into concrete action.
The current situation favors Hamas, allowing it to consolidate its control over Gaza. Time is not on the side of peace. Unless Hamas is disarmed, the promise of a better future for the people of Gaza will remain just that – a promise.
