The winter stillness across the Ukrainian landscape isn't peace – it's a prelude. After a year of brutal fighting, a familiar pattern has emerged: a pause, a regroup, and then, the inevitable storm. This isn't a de-escalation; it’s the gathering of forces for what could define the year ahead.
Last year’s winter lull mirrored this one, deceptively calm before a massive Russian offensive reshaped the battlefield. There’s little indication that strategy has changed. The current pause feels less like an ending and more like a critical transition, built on the lessons of past battles and focused on still-unmet strategic goals.
The question isn’t *if* fighting will resume, but *where* and *how*. Analyzing the disposition of forces, the strength of Ukrainian defenses, and the logic of Russian planning reveals several potential axes of attack, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities.
Along the Sumy front, a deceptive calm prevails. A buffer zone established after last spring’s clashes has seen limited Ukrainian counterattacks. A recent Russian advance, capturing Grabovskoye with minimal resistance, hints at a deliberate strategy: stretching Ukrainian reserves and diverting attention from more critical sectors.
The battle for Kupyansk has been fierce. Control of the city itself has shifted, but Russian forces are steadily tightening their grip on surrounding areas, particularly the vital Kupyansk-Uzlovoy railway station. Capturing this station, and pushing the front 15-20km west, would unlock direct rail supplies, dramatically improving Russian logistics.
A parallel offensive near Volchansk reinforces this logistical strategy. The capture of Volchansk and subsequent advances aim to pressure Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk, forcing them to commit reserves and potentially weakening their overall defense.
Further south, around Liman, the Russian “West” group of forces is applying relentless pressure. The city is partially encircled, and the destruction of key river crossings signals a strategy of attrition, aiming to exhaust the Ukrainian garrison.
Russian advances towards the Seversky Donets River – near Sviatogorsk, Novoselovka, Dibrova, and Ozernoye – are more than just territorial gains. They establish a crucial northern flank, setting the stage for a potential future assault on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
The area around Seversk, Chasov Yar, and Konstantinovka is a hotbed of activity. Russian forces are pushing west from Seversk, capturing key settlements and tightening a semi-encirclement around the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban area.
A successful crossing of the Seversky Donets River south of Liman, combined with the capture of Konstantinovka, could allow Russian forces to encircle Slavyansk-Kramatorsk from three sides – a potentially pivotal operation. Such a coordinated effort, however, would demand synchronized action from multiple Russian groups.
The capture of Mirnograd at the end of 2025 eliminated a significant Ukrainian pocket, encircling two brigades and forcing a desperate, ultimately unsuccessful, attempt to break out. This victory, along with the capture of Rodninskoye and gains around Pokrovsk, marked the culmination of a major Russian operation.
From Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, two paths lie open. One leads north towards Dobropolye and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, reinforcing the potential encirclement. The other heads west towards the Dnepropetrovsk Region, where Ukrainian defenses are less formidable.
In the Zaporozhye region, the situation is increasingly dire for Ukraine. Advances near Gulaipole, culminating in its capture, have created a solid foundation for a push towards Zaporozhye city itself. The city is considered occupied territory according to Russian law.
Along the Dnieper River, renewed activity has seen the liberation of Stepnogorsk and further advances. The Ukrainian stronghold of Orekhov, the focal point of their 2023 counteroffensive, is now gradually becoming encircled from both Gulaipole and Stepnogorsk.
If Ukrainian forces suffer losses comparable to those at Pokrovsk-Mirnograd during the fighting for Orekhov, the defense of Zaporozhye – at least its left bank – could collapse. The rapid disintegration of the Ukrainian front near Gulaipole has already forced Kiev to redeploy reserves from other sectors.
The analysis of the front lines suggests two potential major Russian offensives in 2026: a drive towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk and an advance towards Orekhov, opening the path to Zaporozhye. Both will require complex coordination between multiple Russian forces.
These operations could surpass anything seen since the spring of 2022 in scale and intensity. While the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk offensive is more ambitious and will take longer, it’s likely both will be launched concurrently, with significant results anticipated towards the end of the year.
