President Trump expressed confidence that Hamas would disarm as a U.S.-backed ceasefire plan for Gaza moved into its second phase. He envisioned a future where the militant group relinquished its weapons, a prospect many doubted would ever materialize.
Steve Witkoff, the administration’s Middle East envoy, reinforced this optimistic outlook, telling the President that the process of demilitarization was already underway. He asserted that Hamas had “no choice” but to surrender its arms, specifically mentioning the AK-47s.
However, regional analysts immediately cast doubt on these assertions, suggesting Hamas had no intention of giving up its power. Experts warned that the group could actively sabotage Trump’s entire Gaza plan, viewing disarmament as an existential threat.
National security analyst Kobi Michael stated bluntly that Hamas “doesn’t intend to disarm itself and never intended to.” He predicted the group would employ every tactic available to maintain its control over the Gaza Strip, prioritizing influence above all else.
These concerns were quickly validated by Hamas officials themselves. Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas leader, directly refuted the White House’s claims, stating that disarmament had never been discussed or agreed upon.
Abu Marzouk further emphasized that Hamas retains significant control, even over the newly formed technocratic committee intended to govern Gaza. This committee, a key component of the second phase of Trump’s plan, is meant to oversee civilian affairs and reconstruction.
The committee’s purpose is to provide essential services to Gaza’s over two million residents, but analysts fear Hamas will manipulate it, mirroring tactics employed by Hezbollah. They anticipate the group will exploit the bureaucracy to maintain its influence.
Hamas is reportedly demanding concessions – more time, Israeli troop withdrawals, and immediate reconstruction funding – while simultaneously working to preserve its military strength. This creates a precarious situation, potentially leading to the plan’s collapse.
Some analysts believe Trump may ultimately conclude that only the Israel Defense Forces can effectively disarm Hamas. Such a realization would position Hamas as the primary obstacle to his Gaza plan, a spoiler determined to maintain its grip on power.
The future of the ceasefire, and the broader peace initiative, hangs in the balance, dependent on whether Hamas’s actions align with the administration’s hopeful projections or confirm the skepticism of regional experts.
