A creeping anxiety is gripping Britain’s drivers. Across the country, petrol stations are displaying a stark message: “Sorry we are out.” The sudden scarcity isn’t due to a lack of oil in the ground, but a rapidly escalating crisis unfolding thousands of miles away.
The heart of the problem lies in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies. This narrow waterway, responsible for carrying approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas, has become a focal point of intense conflict following a series of retaliatory attacks stemming from the Middle East.
The catalyst was the targeted elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a joint US-Israel operation, codenamed ‘Operation Epic Fury.’ In response, Iran launched a barrage of missile attacks against neighboring countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, igniting a volatile regional conflict.
The situation dramatically worsened on Sunday morning when two vessels transiting the Strait were struck by projectiles. One ship caught fire, and four crew members sustained injuries. This immediate threat prompted major shipping companies to suspend all journeys through the crucial passage.
The consequences are now being felt at the pump. While the UK’s petrol supply hasn’t completely dried up, panic buying has begun, creating hour-long queues at filling stations. Images from Greater Manchester and Liverpool show lines of vehicles snaking beyond station boundaries and spilling onto adjacent roads.
Experts warn against such behavior, with the AA urging drivers to avoid unnecessary stockpiling. However, the underlying fear is fueled by soaring oil prices. Global benchmark Brent crude has jumped by 13%, reaching its highest level since July 2024.
The price surge is compounded by a growing reluctance among insurers to cover ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has also admitted it cannot guarantee the safety of vessels, predicting the disruption could persist for days, potentially weeks.
Analysts paint a grim picture of the potential economic fallout. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could instantly disrupt roughly a fifth of global oil trade. The resulting price shock wouldn’t be a gradual increase, but a violent spike driven by fear and uncertainty.
The repercussions would extend far beyond energy markets, tightening financial conditions, exacerbating inflation, and pushing already vulnerable economies towards recession with alarming speed. The situation remains fluid and deeply concerning, with the potential to impact daily life for millions.
Brent crude briefly climbed to $82 a barrel yesterday, a level not seen since January of last year, before settling slightly to $79. This volatility underscores the fragility of the global oil supply chain and the immediate impact of geopolitical instability.
