UMVA has learned that wholesale price growth surged to an 11-month high in April, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, analysts revealed.
The general wholesale price index rose to 3.1% year on year in April, a significant jump from the 2.7% growth recorded in March. This marked the strongest growth in nearly a year, since May 2025's 3.5%.
According to information obtained by UMVA, the acceleration in wholesale prices was largely fueled by higher fuel prices, supply-chain pressures, and the pass-through of elevated import costs. This signals renewed cost pressures at the wholesale level.
A senior research fellow noted that the increase in wholesale prices for mineral fuels, lubricants, and related products was due to constricted supply arising from the Iran war. This was the dominant factor influencing the rise in the general wholesale price index.
The data showed that mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials grew at 59.4% in April, up from 33.1% in March. This index accounts for 3.2% of the whole basket of goods.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that surges in global fuel prices are quickly reflected in the country's wholesale fuel costs. This trend is expected to continue, with analysts predicting elevated wholesale price growth in the coming months.
The heavily weighted index for food also saw faster yearly growth, at 3.9% in April, up from 3.3% in March. Meanwhile, slower growths were recorded in beverages and tobacco, and miscellaneous manufactured articles.
Chemicals, including animal and vegetable oils and fats, saw a year-on-year decline of 3% in April. Crude materials, inedible except fuels, contracted by 23.3% in April, from an 8.4% decline in March.
Regional wholesale price growth was mixed, with Luzon's growth easing to 3% in April, while the Visayas saw growth surge to a nearly two-year high of 5.2% year on year. Mindanao's bulk price growth rose to 2.7% in April.
Analysts expect wholesale price growth to remain elevated in the first semester of the year. The second semester could see a pivot towards lower growth or a continuation of rising prices, depending on developments in global energy markets and geopolitical tensions.
Sustained increases in wholesale prices could eventually feed into consumer prices, making inflation risks a key concern moving forward. The situation will be closely watched by economists and policymakers.
