There’s been an even bigger drop in Canadian visitors to the United States than previously thought, a new study by researchers at the University of Toronto suggests.
Earlier this month, Karen Chapple, a professor who is the director of the School of Cities at the university, led a trio of researchers who tracked cellphone data of Canadians crossing the border year-over-year since President Donald Trump launched a trade war and called for the country to become the 51st state.
What they found was a roughly 42% drop in visits to U.S. metropolitan areas , significantly higher than the approximately 25% officially recorded by Statistics Canada .
Sunny destinations saw biggest drop
The largest drop appears to be Myrtle Beach, S.C., a popular vacation area that saw 65.4% fewer visits, according to their data. In February, local NBC affiliate a 30% drop in Canadian visitors , believing political and economic changes driving the change.
Other cities in the top five include sunny destinations such as Yuma, Ariz., Panama City, Fla., Brownsville, Texas, and Orlando, Fla. Florida dominates the list, with nine of 20 popular destinations for Canadians seeking warmer weather.
“Consistent with media reporting, our data shows significant declines in snowbird destinations like Florida; border-region cities in states like New York, New Hampshire and Vermont; major tourist destinations like Las Vegas and Disney World; and winter recreation areas,” the authors said.
Business and trade-related travel also affected
However, researchers suggest the border crossings estimates are not fully capturing business and trade-related travel.
“High-tech and financial centres like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border,” the researchers wrote.
They point to another example in Michigan. Grand Rapids, an important automotive sector area hit with supply chain issues due to the Trump administration’s tariffs, has experienced the second largest drop in visitation by Canadians.
Researchers also say Canadians are visiting fewer locations and staying for less time.
Cellphone data includes freight traffic
They explained the discrepancies between the official border-crossing statistics and cellphone data, saying their numbers include freight traffic, which was higher due to increased trade of goods in January and February 2025 ahead of anticipated tariffs.
“In addition, our data measures not only Canadians crossing the border, but also Canadians living temporarily in the U.S., suggesting that the decrease in activity may reflect return migration to Canada,” the authors wrote.
All but two metropolitan areas saw a drop in Canadian visits among the 266 studied. Gainesville, Fla., and Cleveland saw a more than 30% increase.
Since Trump’s trade war and threats of annexation during his second term in office, many Canadians have boycotted American goods and travel.
Efforts to lure Canadians back
Tourism leaders at popular U.S. destinations such as Las Vegas have launched advertising campaigns to lure Canadians back by offering at-par dollar deals and other discounts.
In addition, Florida tourism leaders sought to boost Canadian travellers to their state amid the backlash to Trump’s trade policies and statements.
“We’re doing what we can, just as we are with any country outside the United States, to make sure that visitation remains strong,” Visit Florida president and CEO Bryan Griffin said in February, CBS .
