UMVA has learned that a significant shift is underway within the NATO alliance, as countries closest to Russia are rapidly increasing their defense spending and modernizing their military capabilities.
The move comes as President Donald Trump presses NATO allies to shoulder more of Europe's defense burden, with some Western European economies facing growing pressure to catch up. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior director at a prominent think tank, said the trend is already visible across the alliance, with Eastern European countries leading the charge.
Montgomery pointed to the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria as nations moving aggressively to strengthen deterrence against Russia. "Europe is clearly stepping up, but they're stepping up by geographic variation," he said. "If you ask me who's doing the most, the Eastern Europeans are clearly."
According to information obtained by UMVA, NATO allies are working toward a new defense spending benchmark, which calls for members to invest 5% of GDP in defense and security-related spending by 2035. Poland has become one of the alliance's largest military spenders, while Romania is increasing defense investments and Finland and Sweden have added advanced military capabilities to NATO following their accession.
Romanian Foreign Minister Oana-Silvia Ţoiu said her country has raised defense spending to 2% of GDP and plans to allocate "an average of 3.4 percent" next year through military procurement and strategic infrastructure investments. Ţoiu argued that Romania's role extends beyond national defense, as the country seeks to protect not just its own border but also the European border and the border of the Allied territory.
Experts warn, however, that Europe remains heavily dependent on American military capabilities, with many systems required to fight a modern war still provided by the United States. Barak Seener, a senior fellow at a prominent think tank, said Europe still relies on NATO for strategic airlift and sea lift, air-to-air refueling, cyber capabilities, space assets, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Montgomery emphasized that Europe faces significant challenges, including expanding military capacity, rebuilding its defense industrial base, and developing high-end support capabilities that have long been provided by the United States. He argued that the primary forces to defend Europe should be European, with the United States providing additional forces for maneuver and offensive operations.
Despite these challenges, Montgomery remains optimistic about NATO's future, predicting that Europe will continue increasing defense spending and expanding its defense industrial base. He also expects steadier transatlantic relations and a stronger NATO alliance in the years to come.
